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【中文摘要】 建设快速客运网络,是铁路“十一五”规划发展重点任务,通过建设客运专线、发展城际客运轨道交通和既有线路提速改造,初步形成以客运专线为骨干,连接全国主要大中城市的快速客运网络。随着客运专线、城际轨道的开通,在同一通道内将有多种高速个人运输方式供出行者选择,对于多种高速运输方式激烈竞争的区段,原有客运运输方式的市场份额必将被高速铁路所分流。本文以全长904公里的哈大客运专线(哈大客运专线已于2007年8月23日正式开工建设,预计2013年完全竣工,部分路段可能于2010年左右完工并投入使用)为背景,面向具有高速出行需求的乘客实施SP(Stare Preference)问卷调查,利用调查得到的数据构建Mixed Logit模型,应用SPSS13.0统计软件对模型进行标定,预测高速客运通道上的各种运输方式在采用不同的竞争策略时的分担率变化情况。针对客运专线的票价和发班间隔进行了敏感性分析。特别针对高速铁路竞争优势,提出公路客运应对的举措(进行票价调整、提升综合服务质量、引进双层豪华客车),论证了其现实可行性,并预测相应的分担率的变化情况。
【英文摘要】 In the "11th Five-Year Plan" period,railway transport has a large growth potential. One of Railway development priorities is to set up a fast passenger transport network. We will develop passenger lines,inter-city passenger railways and reconstruct existing lines,in the aim to preliminarily develop a fast passenger transport network backboned with passenger lines and connecting all major cities of China.With the opening of HSPR line and inter-city passenger railways,there would be a wide variety of high-speed passenger transport modes for passenger to choose In a corridor.In the Section of the highly competitive,the original mode of passenger transport market share is bound to be diverted by high-speed railway.RP data were more reliable,while SP data were more flexible.In order to join the two types of data together to reduce the traffic survey work volume and improve the accuracy of the survey,and based on the analysis of the design of RP/SP survey scheme, the application disaggregate model theory and the survey data of Hada Passenger Line (Harbin-Dalian),a multinomial logit(ML) model for predicting the traffic mode choice was developed,and spssl3.0 was used to calibrate its parameters.After testifying the validity of the model by fitting of the model,the article takes the model to forecast the Distribution rate of passenger flow in Harbin-Dalian.Especially,some counter-measures are proposed for road passenger transport to response the competitive advantage of high-speed railway.
【中文关键词】 客运专线; 个人出行行为; 客流分担率; ML模型