商务英语毕业论文范文-论中美贸易关系(2)
2013-07-21 01:02
导读：And even during 1990s，when they should know Chinas rise is imminent，the trade between China and America still flows. In 2000, China was just the tenth biggest export market for the United States,
And even during 1990s，when they should know China’s rise is imminent，the trade between China and America still flows. In 2000, China was just the tenth biggest export market for the United States, but it rose to the fifth place in 2004. If Hong Kong is taken into account, China had become America＇s third biggest export market in 2005. In 2006, the bilateral trade relations entered a new stage when China, by surpassing Mexico, became America’s second biggest trading partner
And not long after that，the Crisis came….
3. The direct impact of the 2008 Crisis on Sino-American trade relations
One could say the most profoundly influential event during the first decade of the 21st century was the 2008 crisis，and I doubt that there would any different opinions, but before I go ahead and discuss the impact of the crisis，I would like to take more about the pre-crisis Sino-American relations.
3.1 The Impact of Economic Interdependence on Sino-U.S. Relations
Based on the evaluation of the economic interdependence In the field of trade, direct investment and finance. In the trade economic interdependence of Sino-American Relations, the sensitivity of china is bigger than America’s, and vulnerability of china is also bigger than America’s. Therefore, the trade interdependence of Sino-American relations is asymmetric, the U.S. Stand in predominance position, and possess the power of manipulation, but the status of china in the trade interdependence of Sino-American .Relations is ascending, meanwhile, the status of the U.S. is declining. In other words, the trade interdependence of Sino-U.S. Relations possesses the trend of symmetry. The direct investment relation in Sino-U.S also has the character of asymmetric, the U.S. Situate dominance position, analysing in the trend of change, the direct investment relations in Sino-U.S. Also has the trend of symmetry. In the realm of finance, this dissertation mainly study the situation of which china holding the U.S. treasury bonds. We consider that the Sino-U.S. Finance Relations have not formed "Financial balance of terror". Relations, and also brought uncertain factors, this dissertation discussed the friction which the economic interdependence bring about. Analyzed the impact of politicization of economic and trade frictions on Sino-U.S. Relations. We bordered by 1000 year, divided Sino-U.S. Relations into two Periods, one is post-Cold War. Exploring the Positive impact of the economic interdependence on Sino-U.S. Relations. Analysing the influence of asymmetric trend on Sino-U.S. Relations.
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3.2 The hidden root of the imbalances
Dollar standard is the root of the imbalance, so the sustainability of dollar standard determines whether the imbalance can persist or not. Actually, dollar standard is the root of global liquidity glut and global financial turbulence. The liquidity caused by dollar standard has contagion effects on “Trade Countries”. The over innovation of financial market in the U.S.is also an important reason for global liquidity glut. Besides, dollar standard increase the global financial risks by aggravating global interest fluctuation and accelerating global capital flows. As a result, dollar standard also affect global economy negatively. In long term, the reform of international system is an inexorable trend, which determines the unsustainability of dollar standard. But in short term, dollar standard can still persist. So the sustainability of Sino-U.S. economic imbalance can be concluded as persist in short term but vanish in long term. The financial development mode of the U.S.in 1990s is typical self-reinforcing, and it determines that the financial development is unsustainable. After the global financial crisis, the U.S. will attach great importance to the development of real economic sector and shrink financial sector. Since 2005, the financial reform in China develops fast in the perspective of openness, structure, and efficiency. The trend will persist in future. So looking forward, the variance of financial development between the two countries is getting smaller and smaller, and this will rebalance the Sino-U.S. economic relation.
3.3 The impact of the crisis on Sino-U.S relations
Under the global financial crisis, The U.S. sub-prime crisis contains the following stages: outbreak, shortage of liquidity, credit crunch, and hit real economy. In September 2008, the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis evolved into the global financial crisis. U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy mistakes, and the resulting global economic imbalances caused by excess global liquidity, and the United States over the absence of financial innovation and financial supervision is the main reason for causing the crisis. In essence, the current round of global financial crisis is the result of excessive growth of virtual economies. The crises had a significant impact on the imbalance, and promote its change. First, the U.S. real economy recession led to an overall decline in import demand, leading to scale down its imports to China; Second, the U.S. government began to adjust and continue to use trade policy to restrict imports, China became the largest U.S. trade protectionism victim; it is also an opportunity to adjust China's investment structure; Finally, China's large dollar reserve assets is risking due to increased volatility in dollar exchange rate, and the Chinese monetary authority is bound to take active measures. In the post-crisis era, Sino-U.S. economic relation is affected by a number of factors and constraints: First, the Fed's loose monetary policy and the withdrawal time. Second, Sino-U.S. economic restructuring policy. On the one hand, China's policy of expanding domestic demand would be helpful to reduce the current account surplus; on the other hand, the level of U.S. consumer savings rate continued to decline and will continue to increase to some extent, reduce its current account deficit and reduce the dependence on foreign capital. Third, the current international monetary system reform. The United States will have to reform the international monetary system and other major issues, and listen more to developing countries; Finally, the accelerated process of internationalization of RMB.RMB internationalization process of accelerating the formation of the impact on the dollar standard system, and help alleviate the imbalance of Sino-US economic relations. However, it will be a long process.
