论马尔科夫链在体育比赛结果预测中的应用

摘   要

本文通过对马尔科夫链理论的探讨，结合体育比赛结果不确定等诸多特点，构想了体育比赛结果预测的马尔科夫链预测模型，给出了马尔科夫链的初始概率和多重转移概率的计算方法在足球比赛预测中的1般公式，并根据马尔科夫链预测模型计算发现足球比赛短期预测的不准确性，从而针对非短期足球比赛进行准确预测。以求通过对足球比赛的预测扩展到利用马尔科夫链对其他体育比赛的预测。全文通过多个实例论证发展了马尔科夫链预测方法，拓宽了其应用范畴。

关键词：马尔科夫链；马尔科夫过程；预测模型；预测

Abstract

This text according as disquisition about Markov Chain exoterica,link the athleticses a good many characteristic similar unsureness result,construct a model of Markov Chain for forecast computational the athleticses result, and go deep into the forecast model of Markov Chain which had the division of conditions and characteristics of no following effects in the main. It deduced the initial probability on the Markov chain and the common computational for mula of single layer shift probability. This text developed the predictable method of Markov chain and widened the practice range by right of several example proved.

Key words:  Markov Chain；Markov Process；Forecast Model; Forecast